For the BCFS timber supply analysis, it was assumed that existing roads, trails and landings account for as much as 12 percent of young stands (up to 40 years old) and 1.5 percent of stands older than 40 years in the timber harvesting land base. Future roads, trails and landings were assumed to represent an additional
8.1 percent of stands older than 40 years using the interior BC soil conservation guidelines for timber harvesting. The total area excluded from the timber harvesting land base was therefore 27 615 ha (7258 ha for existing and 20 357 ha for future roads, trails and landings) which represents about 10 percent of the timber harvesting land base.
Subsequent to the timber supply analysis, the Lillooet Forest District staff undertook an assessment of the actual area of existing roads, trails and landings in the TSA. Also, the CLMA's submission expressed concern that the reduction for roads, trails and landings used in the timber supply analysis was excessive. The study by the Lillooet Forest District found that existing roads, trails and landings, based on a representative sample of the TSA, cover about 5961 ha, and the revised projected allowance for future roads, trails and landings was 13 003 ha. These figures are respectively 1297 ha and 7354 ha lower than the those assumed in the base case, indicating that the reductions made to the initial and future timber harvesting land base in the BCFS analysis to account for roads, trails and landings were too high by 1297 ha and 8651 ha respectively.
The reduced estimate for roads, trails and landings increases the size of the estimated timber harvesting land base, but this mainly affects mid- to long-term timber supply, since the base case assumes that the timber will be first harvested from areas to be used for future roads, trails and landings. These considerations indicate the need for some adjustment to the BCFS base case, which I have discussed below in aggregate impact.