The Forest Act requires me as Chief Forester to consider biophysical as well as social and economic information in AAC determinations. A timber supply analysis and the inventory and growth and yield data used as inputs to the analysis formed the major body of technical information used in my AAC determination for TFL 45. The timber supply analysis is concerned primarily with biophysical factorssuch as the rate of timber growth and definition of the land base considered available for timber harvestingand with management practices.
However, the analytical techniques used to assess timber supply are simplifications of the real world. There is uncertainty about many of the factors used as inputs to timber supply analysis due in part to variation in physical, biological and social conditions¾although ongoing science-based improvements in the understanding of ecological dynamics will help to reduce some of this uncertainty.
Furthermore, technical analytical methods such as computer models cannot incorporate all of the social, cultural, and economic factors that are relevant when making forest management decisions. Therefore, technical information and analysis do not necessarily provide the complete solution to forest management problems such as AAC determination. The information does, however, provide valuable insight into potential impacts of different resource-use assumptions and actions, and thus forms an important component of the information I must consider in AAC determinations.
In making the AAC determination for TFL 45, I have considered known limitations of the technical information provided, and I am satisfied that the information provides a suitable basis for my considerations in this determination.