The timber supply analysis for TFL 45 that I have considered as part of this determination was undertaken by Timberline Forest Inventory Consultants (Timberline) on behalf of the licensee, Interfor. It has been reviewed by B.C. Forest Service staff. The computer simulation model used by the analyst was the Continuous Area Simulation of Harvesting and Forest Management Projection Model (CASH_FM), which was developed by Timberline. This model is similar to FSSIM, the computer simulation model developed by the BCFS, and provides a reasonable projection of timber supply.
The analysis examined two main management strategies; the first based on current management practices, which served as a base case harvest forecast, and the second based on opportunities for enhanced silviculture. Seven sensitivity analyses were presented around the base case harvest forecast. These sensitivity analyses included changing minimum harvestable ages, existing stand volume estimates, site index estimates, regeneration delay estimates, maximum allowable disturbance percentages, green-up ages, and the amount of area occupied by roads. Additional harvest forecasts were provided which examined the timber supply implications of currently implementable enhanced silvicultural activities, including planting genetically improved planting stock, regenerating stands to species which are expected to have a higher yield, and harvesting stands at earlier ages. I have used these harvest forecasts, and describe some of them in detail, in my considerations below.
For TFL 45, the base case harvest forecast shows that a harvest level of 220 000 cubic metres per year (approximately 5 percent above the current AAC of 210 000 cubic metres per year) could be maintained for one decade before declining by 10 percent per decade for 2 decades, and a further 6 percent after the third decade, to reach 167 000 cubic metres per year. This level, which would be the long-term harvest level for this management unit if all stands regenerated naturally and were left untreated, is then maintained for 7 decades before increasing over 2 decades to the long-term harvest level of 185 100 cubic metres, reached 13 decades from now. For this determination, I have accepted the base case harvest flow projection as a reliable point of reference; henceforth, the term "base case" will refer to that projection.
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