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Tree Farm Licence 45

Regeneration delay

Regeneration delay is the elapsed time after harvesting before an area becomes occupied by a specified minimum number of acceptable, well-spaced trees. For the purposes of the analysis, regeneration delays in TFL 45 were assumed to be 3 years for planted stands and 6 years for naturally regenerated stands. The timber supply in TFL 45 is sensitive to changes in regeneration delay; if regeneration delay has been underestimated by 2 years, the initial harvest level projected in the base case cannot be achieved without causing future timber supply disruptions, and the long-term harvest level is decreased slightly. If regeneration delay has been overestimated by 2 years, then the initial harvest level can be maintained for one more decade than in the base case, and the long-term harvest level is increased slightly. Considering the increase in timber supply associated with a decrease in regeneration delay, I would encourage the licensee to examine opportunities to reduce regeneration delays for the next management plan. At this time, district staff have expressed some concerns about regeneration, as discussed below under Impediments to prompt regeneration. However, until these concerns are verified, I accept the regeneration delay assumptions used in the analysis as reasonable for use in this determination.

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